A recent post from Jester, which was a nice bit of populist Greyscale bashing even as he embraced the changes, has a ton of comments that rather nicely encompass some of the reactions to what people know so far about the upcoming industry expansion. TL;DR: “Nullsec is going to take over everything, fuck this, I quit.”
So here’s the short version on rebuking that. The devblog on all this mentioned right off the bat just how many characters use industry on the daily basis – right around fifty thousand. If you read that, and your reaction was not “wow, that’s an awfully large number, there’s no way enough production can happen in nullsec to support that” but rather to skip through the blog, take it all in, fly into a melodramatic rage and threaten to quit unless all the advantages were returned back to you… well, great. Get out. You won’t be missed, and your less hysterical peers will be happy to pick up your slack, and profits.
I could stop here, and almost feel silly having written everything below this line before doubling back to do an intro that encapsulates the issue nicely. Still, I went off on a bit of a rant on Twitter about why this wouldn’t happen, throwing out some numbers, coined the title, and some people asked for a post. The short version is that “what’s built in EVE” totals tens of thousands of production days per day.
HOW MUCH STUFF GETS BUILT
CCP is generally pretty shy about giving out statistics and numbers, these days, but that wasn’t always the case. There are devblogs floating around with various what gets built numbers, but our prime source is the now-defunct Twitter feed of CCP Diagoras. While the numbers are often a couple years old, that’s fine… the game’s grown since then. Things have also been nerfed, or buffed, but I’m going to not attempt to ‘correct’ them.
With the source in mind, here’s everything I can find on how much stuff that can be built in highsec – and thus mostly is, these days – actually is built per day.
47 Electronic Attack Ships
440 Assault Frigates
643 Stealth Bomber, 504 Interceptor and 1280 Covops Cloaks
A generic statistic, but 9400 Tech I and 1950 Tech II frigates
263 HAC, though it’s undoubtedly the Ishtar coming in #1 these days
315 Tech III Cruiser
Around 245 Battlecruisers (all classes)
About 1450 Battleships (counting only the Tech I)
15 Blackops Battleships per day (note that this was well before the buff that exploded their popularity)
53 Freighter and just under 7 Jump Freighter
Ammo, Drones and Stuff
29.5m Cruise Missiles and 4.5m Torpedoes
28,300 Trauma Fury Heavy Missile, which gives some insight into how much of a Tech II ammo is built in general when popular.
42 million Trauma Heavy Missile
324 million rounds of ammo, collectively
11,400 ECM Drones of various types
30,200 Hobgoblin I and 15,220 Hammerhead I
11,300 Hobgoblin II
14,800 Interdiction Probe
A little over 27,000 scanner probes of all types
960 anchored bubbles, of which the majority (496) were small. Exercise to the reader to decide how much that’s risen given the proliferation of renters since that tweet.
Nearly 5,000 Damage Control II
4300 Gyrostabilizer II, surprisingly beating out Ballistic Control System IIs
Over 40,000 425mm Railgun I, though that’s for compression… figure those go away.
62,300 Tech III Subsystems
4900 Expanded Cargohold II
13.5m Fuel Blocks, though with 2.8m of them in nullsec and 1.61m of them in W-Space, the actual count would be more like 9.11m units.
This devblog has an additional series of numbers which are generalized but nevertheless useful. Convert them into hourly numbers and we get:
9400 Tech I frigates and 1940 Tech II Frigates
2640 Tech I Cruisers, 811 Tech II Cruisers, and 315 Tech III Cruisers
2530 Tech I Battlecruisers and a paltry 96 Command Ships
2050 Tech I Industrials, 163 Tech II Industrials
1420 Destroyers, and an additional 154 Interdictors
1450 Tech I Battleships, 57 Tech II
712 Tech I Mining Barge, 288 Exhumers
Plenty of stuff missing here as well, such as “almost every module.” No matter, we’ll work with what we’ve got. For Tech I ships assume PE5, for Tech II a generous PE-1, with the Tech I ship removed from the build time for the Tech II.
That winds up being 9,021 days worth of production per day churned out, as it happens, just for the hulls. And since we’re pretending everything is going to be in nullsec now, throw in as many as three Supercarriers and two Titans, as well as 65 carriers, 22 Dreadnaughts and 6 Rorquals a day. There’s another five thousand or so production days per day.
Ammo adds, collectively, around six thousand days (and that’s assuming all ammo built in the game is Tech I), drones around 440 days (ditto). We haven’t even tried to account for modules yet and we’re up to almost twenty thousand production-days per day. Speaking of modules, how long do you suppose it takes to build the fit for, say, a CFC “Baltec” Megathron? 2 days, 9 hours, if we assume PE0. That’s 17 times longer than the hull itself. Make the (absurdly incorrect, I will grant) assumption that every Tech I ship built also has a set of Tech II modules built at a similar time ratio, and you’ve got a ballpark for modules: over 25,000 production-days per day.
That’s pure supposition, though, so we’ll just focus on the hulls, ammo and drones. What’s it take to move all of this product that’s supposedly moving to nullsec?
Moving the finished products for all the subcap hulls above is 283,018,000m3. That’s 717 trips per day in a max skill Rhea, roughly one every two minutes, all day, every day. If your typical trip is two jumps as mine is, that’s 30k isotopes per round trip, about 21.5m units per day or roughly a quarter of what was mined around this time in 2011 assuming nothing but Rheas… of course, that quantity was before CCP nuked ice in highsec and changed the mechanics. 21.5b isk a day of fuel, though considering the product being moved is at least 600 billion isk in value, that’s not really all that much.
Incidentally, it’s fortunate that slots are going away, seeing as occupying 18,000 slots 24/7 to build everything but supercaps might actually be more build slots than nullsec has, total.
Let’s Talk People
All these numbers are great, but how many characters are actually involved in industry? Putting that another way, just to remind you of who I’m ridiculing here, how many characters are the whiners & lunatics claiming will have to move out to null?
One could argue that since one character is good for ten-production days per day, as they’ve got ten slots. Thus, a mere two thousand characters can build every hull, round of ammo and drone in EVE, if they keep their slots active 24/7. Given the unwillingness or inability to stop and think, some of the hysterics might even try to claim this is a trivial feat, so as to make their position seem more plausible.
Unfortunately for them, there is plenty of evidence that far more characters than that are involved in industry. Hell, Tech II BPO owner count alone suggests that’s a silly idea. And of course, that last devblog that was mentioned earlier.
WHAT REALLY HAPPENS THEN
Simple. Plenty of industry continues to happen in highsec. In nullsec, alliances fighting on home turf or with access to the infrastructure to make it worthwhile will build some of what they need, most notably battleships. On a non-official level, industrialists willing to build in nullsec find their profit margins considerably larger. Some who consider themselves market savvy might even try to use that to control their niche in the market. Some may even succeed, especially in particularly small niches. On the other hand, attempts to take down & control markets will be opposed by traders in Empire, who will see the undercut markets as a profit center. By and large, life will go on as it always has, minus, perhaps, the few mewling quims who actually follow through on their threats to quit.
Eh. Nah, we won’t be so lucky as that. Almost no one actually follows through.
Note: This post is written in the full knowledge of every devblog yet to be posted. None of them change a damn thing I wrote here.
“The devblog on all this mentioned right off the bat just how many characters use industry on the daily basis – right around fifty thousand.”
So that’s 3k actual players using three accounts. How many of those players are null sec folks who do industry in hi sec because it is easier right now? Your “rebuke” is really quite short on facts. Sure, pile on the numbers to make industry look really big and complicated. Of course you focus on the time it takes to manufacture a single battleship hull, ignoring the actual hours of effort required to start a 10-run battleship hull manufacturing job.
Don’t forget the next dev blog, about the new Industry UI. Fewer clicks, faster job submission, less futzing around with selecting a line only to find that it was filled by someone else before you could get around to it: so many pain points will be gone. With new the UI making life easier for everyone, it will become closer to reality for all those players to keep all their activity lines full 24/7.
Your argument is so fragile, why do you even bother pretending that this industry “rebalance” isn’t a huge buff to null sec?
I never said it isn’t a huge buff to nullsec. I said it’s not going to kill highsec. Very large difference.
Also 3k actual players with 3 accounts would be 27k characters. Next time you want to accuse someone of “fragile arguments” make sure your own bullshit claims are in order first, kthx.
How many hi sec industrialist are alts of null sec players, who will be more than happy to move their operation to null sec given the facilities to do so?
No idea. Can’t be all of them though, I do know that much.
“With new the UI making life easier for everyone, it will become closer to reality for all those players to keep all their activity lines full 24/7.”
It is a pretty big assumption that we will see an increase in the per-slot weekly output potential of any particular character given the entire system is getting an overhaul, even if we get some manner of a queue system.
“How many of those players are null sec folks who do industry in hi sec because it is easier right now?”
At least one, guilty as charged, and considering how much isk I make out of the gaggle of shitlords that are Jita consumers, frankly you should be glad to see the back of me.
Will we see the back of you, though? Or are you simply going to make even more profit from those same consumers thanks to the advantages of manufacturing in null sec?
Interesting points. I am not in industry myself anymore (and I was never into building stuff anyway), but I’ll refer this post to my indy friends.
But one thing:
“I could stop here,”
No, you couldn’t. If you had, your post would have been just pretentious, unsubstantiated grandstanding, the very kind you subtly accuse the ‘hysterical peers’ of. And I think you know that, because you did continue and argued your opinion.
Actually by the time I wrote that line I’d already written the rest of the post and wasn’t about to delete a couple hours worth of work. But thanks for what I think is a compliment.
Great post. I don’t know how player-owned nullsec stations work. Do they also have manufacturing costs?
Currently they have costs, set by and paid to the owners of the station. After summer… well, that’ll be discussed in an upcoming devblog.
Mynnna, you of all people should know what the average EVE player™ is like. You drop two warheads of a carpet bomb (of six) and you wonder why people get anxious? Not only that, but you spread the last 4 warheads out, giving the playerbase plenty of time to formulate, tinfoil, discuss and assume the worst with naught but “just wait until the other blogs come out” and you still wonder why people get angry? Seriously? I’m not trying to get all “Dinsdale” here, but CCP is pulling a hell of a troll. Yea, people are going to get bent out of shape.
If the dev blogs had come out completely, it would be a “one and done” and people would move on (or not). But dragging this process out is only going to cause more issues with a paranoid player base.
I got bent, yea. But I’m willing to see the big picture when the rest of the dev blogs come out. Keep in mind, you have the big picture. We’re only seeing the puzzle pieces.
Might be a one and done and you may be right that the spaced out blogs aren’t helping but I guarantee you the exact same doomsday claims would be getting made.
Totally agree with this. Dragging them out is BS of the first order. It fails to give the complete picture and without the complete picture you can’t make any judgement. My main concern is that my specialism (3 characters with 20m SP in science alone) isn’t devalued to the extent that I’m as competitive against relative noobs as I am against veterans. I trained the SP to have the advantage. If I lose it, well, what will the point of continuing be?
Well look at what they’ve done so far. What they suggest doing with Material Efficiency as a skill makes it continue to be valuable to veterans without making it absolutely required for a new player. Invention isn’t on the slate just yet (a fat point release, or perhaps winter?) Once they do get to it, well, 20m+ SP worth of science skills is harder to do that with, but the theme there suggests that if they do change up how skills factor in, yes, they’ll absolutely continue to be a worthwhile investment.
So you make it seem that the coming industry changes are merely a grievous injury to highsec industry rather than its death. How is this outlook any less monstrous to highsec industrialists?
Grievous injury? Citation needed. What I make it seem like is that highsec industrialists may – or may not – face competition that they don’t have right now. Quantifying how much that might be isn’t something I can do, only attack the idea that “it’s going to die”.
You and the Dev blog make the case for injury. There are multiple cuts:
1. battleship consumption in nullsec will now be handled by production in nullsec.
2. highsec POS risk increased (previously no risk, now greater than 0 risk of loss of BPO),
3. Office hangar – POS interaction nuked. No longer possible to research or copy BPOs without probable loss of same (“See a pos with lab = go kill POS by griefers”)
4. Increased costs. Dev blog says that POS production will be doubly charged (both the POS fuel and NPC taxes). And nullsec being nullsec, they won’t have these charges or will have substantially smaller ones.
#3 pisses me off the most. My home highsec region has a whole fucking *6* stations with labs. I bet every Sov nullsec region has more. And there’s not a damned thing I can do about it, unlike nullsec industrialists who have the option of erecting more outposts or outpost upgrades,
1. There’s not actually any guarantee of this. If we’re fighting a defensive war in Deklein (aka our home turf) you bet I’ll build our battleship supply. If we’re fighting a defensive war in allied space? Sure, I’ll probably still have the necessary facilities. If we’re invading a hostile region? Nope! Only way I’m building our battleships for that war is if we drop and immediately upgrade (or take) a Tier 3 Minmatar station. I’m also dependent on being able to get enough compressed ore from highsec, which is currently a big unknown.
2. “No risk” ought to tell you what the problem is right there. Of course with slot removal, the POS is no longer necessary.
3. See above, including in response to your followup complaint. Also, here are the list of CFC regions that have six or fewer Caldari/Research stations: Tenal, Branch, Deklein, Fade, Pure Blind, Cloud Ring, Fountain, Querious, Period Basis. For those keeping track, that’s “every one of them but delve.”
4. On the cost front you have no idea what the cost structure looks like yet and so are reactive preemptively, likewise on the “nullsec won’t” front.
A year from now will those nullsec regions have no more Caldari outposts? I doubt it. They don’t have them now because research can be done at POSes in system, so there’s no incentive to put Caldari outposts. But a year from now there will still be only 6 lab stations in my highsec region (3 in lowsec no less) and there’s nothing I can do about it, unlike CFC.
WTS: Many Tin Foil hats. High Sec only.
In general I am very appreciative of your contributions to the game and as a CSM member; thank you. I would like to ask a question regarding the industry changes.
Has CCP considered that by changing some of the mechanics of industry they may be losing accounts simply because the accounts will no longer be necessary? For example: I have 11 accounts 4 in a C6 wormhole and 7 spread out all over hi and low sec.
As I have been playing for a long time I seemed to just add accounts a I needed a particular skill set, like research. With the changes to POS research unless something changes in the coming blogs it will not be worth my while to risk the BPO’s I have accumulated over the years so will take my POS down, I won’t be needing my research accounts etc etc.
To be clear my main source of income is C6 PvP/PvE but I keep my other accounts subscribed just to be able to tinker with whatever aspect of Eve catches my fancy at the time.With these changes I may be unsubbing some of my accounts because they are no longer of use to me as I can’t move to Null as it would conflict with the requirements of my WH corp.
I can’t be the only guy in Eve that does things like this so has CCP factored in a possible non-rage quit losses from this change. I won’t be leaving Eve but I may be trimming down my accounts.
While I can’t comment specifically on what CCP thinks, my own personal opinion is that long term it would probably be a net positive for the game to have “you must have such and such alts to do X activity” not be a thing.
That said, what you are suggesting with your accounts does not support your theory anyway; your “not needing” your research accounts sounds a lot like “not wanting” them, which is a hell of a premature opinion to embrace.
So, if I’m reading this, the average industrial character uses 0.5 production lines per day. How the hell does that happen? I know invention is massively inefficient in this respect because invented module BPCs take inconveniently short amounts of time, but…
What you’re telling me here is that 1% of the EVE subscriber base (as differentiated from the player base) could completely saturate the EVE economy if they wanted to, already. Why don’t they? I imagine ISK/click is one part of this, but I’m kind of amazed now that there’s significant profit margins for, well, anything.
“50k people installing jobs”, hell of a lot of room in there for wiggle in duration as you got at. People sleep, people work, people do things that aren’t eve, jobs take odd lengths of time, someone building just to get a certain thing may only build one run at all… The list of possible reasons goes on.
There’s no incentive to oversupply the market; You can build more than you can sell; but then you would:
-drive the market price down yourself, cutting into your own investment
-have isk tied up in products, unable to reinvest
Well written post, however I feel it attempts to dismiss the upcoming changes “with data”, when the only point it proves is that you can’t move *all* of manufacturing to null… And with a flawed logic at times, too:
– modules can easily be built (and actually should be built) in a POS. less manufacturing time. So all T1 & T2 modules are not under consideration here. To some degree the same applies to T1 frigs, where mineral cost is low enough compared to build time. If you exclude those 2 categories, then your numbers all of sudden change quite a bit. And I don’t want to insult your economic knowledge, but giving a significant cost advantage to a portion of the competitors means changing the price completely, as long as that portion is not 1%.
– You don’t mention low-sec capital builders at all. Those are the ones that will REALLY get screwed. That race is doomed to extinction entirely, no questions asked.
Tech I frigates are 437 build-days with the numbers I used, which is a pretty tiny fraction of what I added up; meanwhile, whether modules “should be” built in a POS isn’t what matters, but whether they are. No data available on that, of course, but even in the unlikely scenario where they still are, the remaining 75% of build time is… still an immensely large number.
I’m not really sure why “all it proves is you can’t move all production to nullsec” is a problem, considering that that’s the very point I set out to demonstrate in the first place.
And, I didn’t mention lowsec capital builders at all because… well, there’s a possibility they will get screwed, yes, but that’s something I’ll wait until everything is published to decide.
A good, solid post. Thanks for the effort putting it all together.
I understand there are reasons for staggering the dev blogs but CCP should probably do the numbers blog next if they have things ready. The UI changes won’t be properly appreciated in the current climate.
I also don’t think the upcoming changes will make hi-sec industry forced into null-sec. In fact, so far the information is that null-sec Outpost slots and POS will also be “taxed” by CCP, and also all existing bonuses will be removed from slots. If so, that means that the time reductions for Amarr Outposts, for example, will disappear, and as your average industrialist in Eve isn’t stupid, all the hi-sec people will do is unlock their BPOs, move to a quieter system, and start up again with the new increased cost passed onto the end user.
In null-sec, this will be more of a problem, as if you’re in a congested system, what do you do? Move to the system next door? Well, what if it doesn’t have an Outpost in, then that’s around a 15 billion investment to set up. The other option is to put up a POS and use your blueprints, but in null-sec you’re likely to get Super Carriers turn up as well as Dreads, so same argument you raised about lo-sec POS stands.
As to simplifying the interface… well they may remove some clicks (as long as you can batch jobs like inventions etc.), but they’re realistically adding another step in the process because, as you pointed out, most people will now end up copying BPOs first to use them anywhere except in the station you’re in.
Also, and vey importantly, there’s been no hint of any changes to the horrible corporation interface, and that will be essential for all the locking, unlocking and re-locking of BPOs that will probably become part of an industrialist’s life after the update.
I don’t remember seeing “existing bonuses removed from slots” in the devblog, just “we are removing slots”. You are right about the “move to a quieter system” bit though, I imagine.
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It might be worthwhile to consider some of the psychology being bandied about concerning Hi-Sec Carebear data based contempt hysteria.
1) Carebears, as a group, are overly emotional entitled brats. Whether always true or not, this is certainly being flung at them en masse.
2) Profitable casual Hi-Sec manufacturing looks to be a little more difficult (less casual). For those that pursued this type of casual play, the added difficulty is certainly annoying. No wonder the talkative ones are making a fuss. People don’t like to let go of things they found satisfying.
3) Carebears, as a group, are paranoid tinfoil hat donning fools. Factually speaking, most Carebears remain anonymous making any paranoia undeserved but on the level of propaganda it’s a very different story. Ice Interdictions, supporting the last Hulkageddon, Burn Jitas etc. are understood by all involved as opportunities to prey on Hi-Sec. Statistically speaking such actions are mere drops in a very large ocean but they get a lot of press and for those that drink deep the propaganda the industry changes can be seen as yet another way for Grrr Goons to prey on Hi-Sec. Practically speaking, not all Hi-Sec industry can be destroyed (it’s a very big ocean) but it seems both logically and practically possible to control certain sectors of the market at will (say Attack Battlecruisers – it’s only 4 boats) and, unlike the previous hunts listed above, Grrr Goons now appear to make a little profit in the process. For the paranoid Carebear Hi-Sec industrialist, it’s not precisely “go null-sec or go home,” rather it’s having to accept that when it comes to one’s particular Hi-Sec industrial niche, one has to admit that, should Grrr Goons choose, one will have to play to the Grrr Goon tune.
I’m not quite certain what to make of the long established and oft repeated Null-Sec vs Hi-Sec motif. It not only generates a lot of amusing content but also puts CCP in a terrible bind whenever they attempt balancing since it’s rarely viewed by the players involved as balancing but rather is jammed into an ongoing Us vs Them battle.
This hardly seems out of reach for 50000 characters. It would be 0.014 trips per character per day.
This is a useful number. It shows that the transportation cost disadvantage of null is not really very high, namely, 3.6%. And that’s for “average” goods, meaning the basket of goods you’ve used above, which includes lots of ship hulls.
Of course, the price of fuel would rise given a sudden large spike in demand. It does not seem likely to me that it will go as far up as 14% in the long run. But that is possible. If isotope prices rise to around 4 times their current level, then an “average” manufacture in null would not beat even a 14% surcharge in highsec.
But of course, most manufacturing is not “average” in volume:value. Most of it is lower than average, with ship hulls blowing up the average. I do not expect null to supply things that are bulky. The transportation cost of most Tech II parts, which take up 5m^3 and sell for a price on the order of 1m ISK, is trivial. By my calc that is 7.36b ISK worth of stuff in one Rhea load. If that requires 30m ISK worth of isotopes to move, it’s .04%, which is negligible. Fuel costs would have to go up by 344 times for this cost to overwhelm a nullsec advantage of 14%.
It is that 14% which scares people.
The main thing I don’t understand about all the whining about the new system is that I cannot see that most highsec manufacturing slots are anywhere near full. I dabble in manufacture, a little bit now and again. I make my stuff two jumps from Jita. My station occasionally fills up and has a queue, but typically not. Again: there are empty slots regularly, two jumps from Jita. This suggests that currently most manufacturing slots in highsec are empty most of the time. Thus, depending on how crowded a station has to be before non-zero manufacturing surcharges hit, highsec should still retain its cost advantage. Just like now. So there is the real question: in the planned summer release, how many jobs are possible at a station before losing 0% costs? I assume you know. Are you unable to report this factoid due to NDA?
As things stand, all I can foresee happening in the summer is that manufacturing spreads out a little from around Jita to more of highsec. That’s perhaps a bit painful to manufacturers, and a small boon to Red Frog. But it won’t be a big deal. Many people will move out to null not because they are “forced” out by costs, but because they can manufacture whereever they want with about the same cost structure, and they want to manufacture in null.
“By and large, life will go on as it always has, minus, perhaps, the few mewling quims who actually follow through on their threats to quit.
Eh. Nah, we won’t be so lucky as that. Almost no one actually follows through.”
So the most recent action that buffed nullsec and nerfed hisec as you said was the ice anomaly changes. Do you have any statistics that you could share about how many hisec ice miners quit, moved to nullsec, or continued to mine in hisec? Do you think that is a close enough indicator of what may happen with these industry changes?
what i do not understand, why are we always seeing hs->sov.null income transver?
shouldn’t it be more like hs->ls->npc0->sov0?
the new ui, batches, no slots – i assume industry will also get more alt/isboxer friendly. hooray.
Mynnna, with all due respect… this blog entry is very poorly written. I feel like there is a point in there that you wanted to make, yet it didn’t come out in your writing.
In your reply to me on Nosy Gamer, you said that the transport issue was the least important part of your argument (Nosy pointed out the fact that since the transport capacity exists *right now* to move a *lot* of products from high-sec to null means that the capacity to bring a lot of goods in the reverse direction also exists).
However, once we remove the transport aspect of the argument, what is left? Why can’t this manufacture occur in null and be shipped to high sec? Is it a lack of station in Null? If so why won’t more stations be built? What is it exactly? What am I missing?
Von Keigai’s reply is far more convincing than yours. But he (and I) are just “ordinary bloggers”. You have a higher standard to meet, because as a CSM member you’re suppose to communicate with the player base. I agree with you incidentally that people are over-reacting. Or at least I think I agree, because I’m still not sure what your position is.
A lot of this would have been avoided with more crucial details from CCP right form the start I imagine.
What’s the point? The point is the demonstrable fact that industry is the result of tens of thousands of characters doing work, that the scale and scope is such that thinking everyone involved moves to nullsec is laughable. I suppose proponents of the theory would claim those that don’t move would quit.
Thank you for posting my somewhat critical post.
Ok. So your central argument is this “there is sooo much industry going on in High sec, they can’t all move to nullsec”. Okay. Why not?
Of course they *wont*. A significant number of players will not move to Null, no matter what, end of story. But if for some reason all highsec industrialists wanted to move to null, they couldn’t? Isn’t that a problem?
If the goal of CCP is to encourage industrialists to move to nullsec, then why wouldn’t this move be possible for the bulk of them?
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